International Economic Outlook: Will High Risk Events Trigger a Recession?

Will High Risk Events Trigger a Recession?

In the worldwide business cycle, the group of the English-speaking countries has led historically global economic activity. Monthly predictive analytics signal an underlying weakness for several months in the English-speaking countries, which have posted negative or steadily declining growth rates in their leading indicators.

Globally, trade predictive analytics, which summarize worldwide merchandize exports, clearly point out an undergoing global slowdown contradicting the media created myth of transitory snowstorms in New England as the cause of an economic downswing in the United States in the first quarter of this year. In March of this year, global exports, on a year-to-year basis, declined by 12.4%, the sixth consecutive monthly decline in a row following an expansion since October 2014.  On a quarterly basis, in the first quarter of 2015 global exports dropped 10.2% from a year ago to $3.7 trillion, following a 2.6% decline in the last quarter of 2014. A major trigger for such dramatic changes in each county’s business cycle has been the “burst” of the oil-price bubble coupled with currency realignments from the strengthening of the US dollar as well as a slowdown in the growth in emerging economies.

In addition to geopolitical risks related to Middle East and Eastern Europe, there is high probability of bursting this year one or more  policy-created bubbles.  A hard landing in China from housing prices and/or stock market corrections; disintegration of the Euro Area; high debt to income ratios – both private and public – in several countries; and the timing of an exit from an ill-conceived and permanent-perceived monetary policy of zero interest rates in the United States. Any of these events may trigger a significant correction in stock markets leading to another major recession with no tools left for economic policy. …Assigning a 40% probability that any of these events will come suddenly into play this year .

By Evangelos Otto Simos, Ph.D.

• Related Research: Global Semiconductor Industry Leading Indicator and Forecast Report.

 

International Economic Outlook: Will High Risk Events Trigger a Recession?

Download IPC Standards - Everything You Need From Start To Finish

To achieve a high quality end product and maintain a competitive position in the marketplace, you need to infuse quality throughout the manufacturing process.

Did you know there is an IPC standard associated with nearly every step of printed circuit board production and assembly?  From design and purchasing to assembly and acceptance, Electronics.ca Publications offers IPC Standards to help you assure superior quality, reliability and consistency in the electronic assemblies that go into your product. Download IPC Standards Spec Tree – PDF file.

As with the manufacturing process — which uses a step-by-step approach – IPC standards also build upon one another. To achieve your desired results, it’s important to implement the appropriate IPC standards associated with each step of production.

Download IPC Standards Spec Tree – PDF File

Why Use IPC Standards in Your Manufacturing Process?

• Gain Control Over End Product Quality and Reliability — Quality and reliability are the cornerstones of competing in the marketplace and critical to your company’s reputation and profitability. By implementing IPC standards throughout the manufacturing process, you help ensure better performance, longer life and compliance with lead-free regulations.


• Improve Communication with Suppliers and Employees — IPC standards are the standards that your competitors, suppliers and EMS providers use. Working from an established IPC standard helps all of you to “speak the same language” — the language of the global electronic industry. In addition, using IPC standards eliminates confusion for employees, because they know they need to perform to an established industry standard.


• Help Contain Costs — Ensuring that your design and the bare boards you purchase comply with IPC standards allows you to produce electronic assemblies that meet stringent quality tests down the line, minimizing costly delays, rework and scrap.

The Most Popular IPC Documents are available from Electronics.ca Publications in PDF Format

Download IPC Standards

IPC A-610F – Acceptability of Electronic Assemblies
IPC-A-610 is the most widely used electronics assembly standard in the world. A must for all quality assurance and assembly departments.

IPC J-STD-001F – Requirements for Soldered Electrical and Electronic Assemblies
J-STD-001 Requirements for Soldered Electrical and Electronic Assemblies has emerged as the preeminent authority for electronics assembly manufacturing. The standard describes materials, methods and verification criteria for producing high quality soldered interconnections. The standard emphasizes process control and sets industry-consensus requirements for a broad range of electronic products. This revision now includes support for lead free manufacturing.

IPC A-620B – Requirements and Acceptance for Cable and Wire Harness Assemblies
Revision B is now available for the only industry-consensus standard for Requirements and Acceptance of Cable and Wire Harness Assemblies.

IPC-DRM-PTH-E
Now updated to Revision D of the latest IPC-A-610E and J-STD-001E – our Training & Reference Guide illustrates critical acceptance criteria for the evaluation of through-hole solder connections.

IPC-DRM-SMT-E
Useful as a training aid in the classroom or on the shop floor, DRM-SMT-E contains computer generated color illustrations of Chip component, Gull Wing and J-Lead solder joints.

IPC-J-STD-033C
J-STD-033 Provides Surface Mount Device manufacturers and users with standardized methods for handling, packing, shipping and use of moisture/reflow sensitive SMDs.

IPC-J-STD-020D-1
IPC-J-STD-020D-1 standard identifies the classification levels of nonhermetic solid state surface mount devices that are sensitive to moisture-induced stress.

J-STD-075

J-STD-075 provides test methods to classify worst-case thermal process limitations for electronic components. Classification is referenced to common industry wave and reflow solder profiles including lead-free processing.

IPC Collections:

IPC-C-103 – Electronics Assembly Standards Collection

IPC-C-1000 Essential Document Collection for Board Design, Assembly and Manufacture

IPC-C-108 Cleaning Guides and Handbooks Collection

Through Electronics.ca you can order IPC standards for printed circuit board design and manufacturing and electronics assembly, including handbooks, guidelines and IPC training videos.

Download IPC Standards - Everything You Need From Start To Finish

Virtual Reality Hardware to Soar Past the $2 Billion Mark in 2016

ELECTRONICS.CA PUBLICATIONS announces the availability of a new report entitled “Worldwide Augmented and Virtual Reality Hardware Forecast, 2016–2020“. Worldwide shipments of Virtual Reality (VR) hardware will skyrocket in 2016, with total volumes reaching 9.6 million units. Led by key products from Samsung, Sony, HTC, and Oculus, the category should generate hardware revenues of approximately $2.3 billion in 2016. While VR will drive nearly all of the hardware volume in 2016, Augmented Reality (AR) hardware is forecast to ramp up over the next few years. According to the first worldwide AR/VR forecast, the combined device markets will see hardware shipments surge past 110 million units in 2020.

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This report identifies three major device categories across the Augmented and Virtual Reality markets. They include: Screenless viewers that use the screen of specific smartphones to drive an AR/VR experience (example: Samsung Gear VR); Tethered Head Mounted Displays (HMDs) that utilize an existing compute device such as a PC, game console, or even a smartphone to drive a head-worn display (example: Oculus Rift); and Standalone HMDs that integrate processing within the head-worn display itself (example: Microsoft HoloLens). IDC is specifically not forecasting Google Cardboard-based products in its totals, nor any other viewer accessory that lacks electronics.

“In 2016, the first major VR Tethered HMDs from Oculus, HTC, and Sony should drive combined shipments of over 2 million units,” said Tom Mainelli, vice president for Devices & Displays at IDC. “When you combine this with robust shipments of screenless viewers from Samsung and other vendors launching later this year, you start to see the beginning of a reasonable installed base for content creators to target.”

“Video games will clearly be the lead rationale for people to pick up an Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, or PlayStation VR this year,” added Lewis Ward, research director of Gaming. “While there have been some launch window hardware shipment hiccups that must be addressed near-term, I’m confident that they will be ironed out before the holiday season. The addition of exciting new titles will lead to a new wave of VR HMD hardware interest among those buying for themselves or family members and friends.”

IDC expects AR hardware to take longer to bring to market. “While development kits from players such as Microsoft, Meta, and others point to a strong future in AR hardware, these devices are dramatically harder to produce than VR products,” said Mainelli. “Doing this right is more important than doing it fast, and we urge the industry to continue its slow and steady approach to hardware development here, as AR is going to have a profound impact on the way we interact with technology and the way we do our jobs for many years to come. In the meantime, we expect companies to begin experimenting with AR software on devices already in use: smartphones and tablets.”

Virtual Reality Hardware to Soar Past the $2 Billion Mark in 2016

Worldwide Augmented and Virtual Reality Hardware Shipments and 5-Year CAGR (shipments in millions)
Product Category	2016 Shipments	2020 Shipments	2016-2020 CAGR
Virtual Reality Hardware	9.6	64.8	183.8%
Augmented Reality Hardware	0.4	45.6	189.8%
Source: IDC, April 2016

Source: IDC, April 2016

The new forecast, Worldwide Augmented and Virtual Reality Hardware Forecast, 2016–2020, provides shipment data for the three major device types, as well as average selling price (ASP) and revenues projections. The report also offers consumer and commercial shipment data.

 

Virtual Reality Hardware to Soar Past the $2 Billion Mark in 2016

International Economic Outlook: Will High Risk Events Trigger a Recession?

Will High Risk Events Trigger a Recession?

In the worldwide business cycle, the group of the English-speaking countries has led historically global economic activity. Monthly predictive analytics signal an underlying weakness for several months in the English-speaking countries, which have posted negative or steadily declining growth rates in their leading indicators.

Globally, trade predictive analytics, which summarize worldwide merchandize exports, clearly point out an undergoing global slowdown contradicting the media created myth of transitory snowstorms in New England as the cause of an economic downswing in the United States in the first quarter of this year. In March of this year, global exports, on a year-to-year basis, declined by 12.4%, the sixth consecutive monthly decline in a row following an expansion since October 2014.  On a quarterly basis, in the first quarter of 2015 global exports dropped 10.2% from a year ago to $3.7 trillion, following a 2.6% decline in the last quarter of 2014. A major trigger for such dramatic changes in each county’s business cycle has been the “burst” of the oil-price bubble coupled with currency realignments from the strengthening of the US dollar as well as a slowdown in the growth in emerging economies.

In addition to geopolitical risks related to Middle East and Eastern Europe, there is high probability of bursting this year one or more  policy-created bubbles.  A hard landing in China from housing prices and/or stock market corrections; disintegration of the Euro Area; high debt to income ratios – both private and public – in several countries; and the timing of an exit from an ill-conceived and permanent-perceived monetary policy of zero interest rates in the United States. Any of these events may trigger a significant correction in stock markets leading to another major recession with no tools left for economic policy. …Assigning a 40% probability that any of these events will come suddenly into play this year .

By Evangelos Otto Simos, Ph.D.

• Related Research: Global Semiconductor Industry Leading Indicator and Forecast Report.

 

International Economic Outlook: Will High Risk Events Trigger a Recession?

IPC-4101D-WAM1 Brings Significant Changes and Clarifications

If you need the most current specifications for PCB materials used in rigid or multilayered printed boards, then it is time to upgrade to IPC-4101D-WAM1. This newly revised standard brings critical updates to the already valuable IPC-4101D, Specification for Base Materials for Rigid and Multilayer Printed Boards.

Why wait? Upgrade to the IPC-4101D-WAM1 today!

IPC-4101D-WAM1 delivers key updates for board designers, specifiers of board materials, and OEM’s who use and keep boards current with base materials used in PCBs.

This revision:

• covers requirements for laminate or prepreg base materials used primarily for rigid and multilayer printed boards for electrical and electronic circuits


• contains 64 individual, keyword searchable specification sheets, including a brand new sheet that expands offerings for commercially available laminates and prepregs


• clarifies what is stated in the original release of IPC-4101D for the FR-4.0 materials as “None” for inorganic filler content, now states “<5%” is allowed


• adds table 3-10, Permissible Laminate Substitutions for Specification Sheets /21, /24, /26 and /30

IPC4101D-WAM1

This revision brings significant changes and clarifications. Learn more about how these updates can benefit you. Order IPC4101D-WAM1 today!

 

 

IPC-4101D-WAM1 Brings Significant Changes and Clarifications

Commercially Significant Market for Graphene Products to Develop Between 2015 and 2020

ELECTRONICS.CA PUBLICATIONS, the electronics industry market research and knowledge network, announces the availability of a new report entitled “Graphene: Technologies, Applications and Markets“. Although the nascent commercial market for graphene-based products currently is very small, between 2015 and 2025 the market should achieve unprecedented growth rates through technological advancements. New report reveals that increasing patent activity suggests technology trends are under way, ripening the market for explosive future growth.

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Graphene is a sheet of carbon atoms bound together with double electron bonds in a thin film only one atom thick. The atoms in graphene are arranged in a honeycomb-style lattice pattern, an arrangement that provides strength, flexibility and electrical conductivity. The basic structural element of several forms of carbon, including graphite, carbon nanotubes and fullerenes, graphene has opened up new horizons for high-energy particle physics research and electronic, optical and energy applications.

Potential electronics applications of graphene include ultra-small transistors, super-dense data storage, touchscreens and wearable electronics. In the energy field, potential applications include ultracapacitors to store and transmit electrical power as well as highly efficient solar cells.

Global Market for Graphene

BCC research group expects a commercially significant market for graphene products to develop between 2015 and 2020, when the market is projected to be worth more than $310.4 million. The graphene market should continue to grow rapidly after 2020, approaching $2 billion by 2025.

Graphene printed electronics currently account for virtually all of the (very small) commercial market for graphene technologies. By 2020, structural materials should lead the market (23.2% market share) followed by displays (16.9% market share), graphene capacitors (16.9% market share) and high-performance computing applications (10.5% market share). Capacitors are projected to account for the largest share (31.6%) of the market for graphene technologies by 2025.

One challenge of chemical vapor deposition (CVD) for the production of graphene is removing the graphene film from the metal substrate without contaminating it or ruining it. Several groups of researchers are working on solutions to this challenge. One of the most promising potential applications foreseen for this technology is the production of transparent electrodes for electronics screens.

In a field where many products and applications are still under development, an analysis of recent patents granted is a useful indicator of technology trends that will affect the graphene market in the mid-to-long term.

The number of U.S.patents granted for graphene-related inventions has been growing over the last 10 years, from four patents in 2005 to 309 in 2014 and 386 in just the first 10 months of 2015. Among the 355 patents issued for graphene applications, structural materials account for the largest number of patents identified. This trend is a clear indication of the growing interest in graphene.

Graphene: Technologies, Applications and Markets examines markets for graphene, with specific coverage of graphene technologies and applications. Analyses of global market drivers and trends, with data from 2014, estimates for 2015, and projections of CAGRs through 2020, and through 2025, are provided.

Details of the new report, table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications’ web site. View the report: “Graphene: Technologies, Applications and Markets“.

Commercially Significant Market for Graphene Products to Develop Between 2015 and 2020

European EMS Market Analysis

2014 was a tough year for most EMS companies with revenues in Western Europe  declining by 3% while an increase of 3.4% in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and  Middle East/North Africa (MENA) helped the overall European market post growth of 0.5%. Although the market is expected to recover, growth is forecast to remain flat in 2015/2016 before gaining some traction in the later part of the forecast period.

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EMS revenues in Western Europe are forecast to reach Euro 11.16 billion in 2019, up from Euro 10.37 million in 2014, with the market increasingly focused on the Aerospace, Defence, Automotive, Medical, Control & Instrumentation, Industrial and Telecom  (ADAMCIT) segments of the market.

Source: RER , The European EMS Industry – A Strategic Study of the European EMS Industry 2014-2019

The transfer of production to manufacturing facilities in  CEE/MENA to reduce costs and  the increasing demand by OEMs for EMS to offer local manufacturing in key global markets will dampen growth in Western Europe during the period to 2019.

The reverse applies to CEE/MENA where growth will be boosted by the transfer of production from Western Europe and in particular, lower volume high mix products in the ADAMCIT segments. This is expected to be offset in part by the migration of higher volume products in the consumer, computing and communications, or 3C, segment to Asia as the major global EMS companies come under increasing pricing pressure.  Assuming that the leading global EMS providers remain committed to retaining a major manufacturing presence in the region revenues are forecast to reach Euro 16.21 billion by 2019, up from Euro 15.15 billion in 2014

Major EMS Players

Although made up of over 1,000 companies, the industry is dominated by a small number of Global players with the Top 3 – Foxconn, Flextronics and Jabil – accounting for around 44.5% of revenues in 2014, with nearly 90% from plants in CEE focused on  the 3C segment.

Approaching 75% of the total sales (Euro 19.1 billion) are achieved by the leading 50 companies or 5% of the total number. We are expecting that there will be further consolidation across the industry due to the downward price pressure, slow economic growth and requirement to broaden and deepen the design, development and aftercare services to customers.

This comprehensive report provides:

• A detailed market analysis to 2019 for Western Europe, CEE and North Africa in a single report.


• A breakdown of the market by major sector.


• An in-depth analysis and comment on the key market trends impacting the European EMS Industry.


• A ranking and detailed profiles of the Top 20 EMS providers in Europe.


• An overview of electronic production and EMS manufacturing in the major countries and regions including a ranking of the leading companies and profiles of the major players.


• A directory by country of the EMS manufacturing locations with addresses, contact numbers, websites.

An appendix with the estimated sales turnover for 2014 of the Top 50 European EMS providers and the Top 50 European EMS companies based on global revenues and a list of the prevailing and historical currency exchange rates.

The European EMS Industry report allows you to track these developments in a single cost-effective study providing both detailed market and company analysis. The eleventh edition of the European EMS industry report, published by Reed Electronics Research, highlights the issues impacting the European EMS industry.

Details of the new report, table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications’ web site: The European EMS Industry – A Strategic Study of the European EMS Industry 2014-2019.

 

European EMS Market Analysis