Worldwide Cellphone Subscriptions Forecast to Exceed Worldwide Population in 2015

However, the “unique” cellphone subscriber base is quickly approaching saturation.

ELECTRONICS.CA PUBLICATIONS announces a new “2015 IC Market Drivers Report” update.  The report contains analyses on The Internet of Things, tablet PCs, smartphones, automotive electronics, medical and health systems, wireless networking and many other fast growing electronic systems.  An excerpt from this new 500-page report is included in this research bulletin.

One of the most widely reported metrics concerning the cellphone marketplace is the subscriber base.  The subscriber base is defined as the number of cellular service subscriptions that exist at a given point in time.

In 2015, the worldwide population is expected to reach 7.4 billion while the number of cellphone subscriptions is forecast to be slightly over 7.5 billion (Figure 1), marking the first time cellphone subscriptions will exceed the worldwide population.  In total, the number of cellular subscriptions from 1999-2018 is forecast to have an amazing 19-year CAGR of 16%.  It should be noted that in some regions of the world, cellphone subscription penetration rates now greatly exceed 100% of the population (e.g., Russia 185%, Italy 151%, Brazil 141%, Germany 140%, U.K. 128%).

One reason that subscriptions exceed a country’s population is that many users purchase different SIM (Subscriber Identity Module) cards and therefore different phone numbers for cities they often visit (to get cheaper phone rates). Each of these SIM cards is considered another “subscription.”  Thus, although the end-of-2014 penetration rate for Russia is expected to be 185%, it is estimated that the true penetration rate (i.e., actual percentage of the population that has a cellphone subscription) will probably be about 70% at the end of this year.

In addition to the effect of SIM cards, there is also an increasing percentage of the population that is carrying two cellphones, typically one for business and one for personal use.  Overall, IC Insights currently estimates that there are 4.4 billion unique cellphone users in the world today, representing about 60% of the 7.3 billion worldwide population in 2014.

Worldwide Cellphone Subscriptions Forecast

 

Figure 1

There is no denying that a total cellular phone subscription forecast of 7.5 billion in 2015 looks impressive.  However, as the unique subscriber base in many regions moves toward saturation, the average annual growth rate of unique subscribers is forecast to slow significantly (Figure 2).

The annual increase in unique cellular phone subscribers is believed to have peaked in 2006 at 362 million.  Since then, the number of new unique subscribers added to the user base has slowed.  IC Insights forecasts that the number of new unique cellular subscribers in 2018 will be only about 100 million, less than one-third of the 362 million subscribers that were added 12 years earlier in 2006.

One trend that will help keep cellphone/smartphone sales strong and partially offset the decline in the growth rate of unique cellular subscribers is the movement of cellphone users to own more than one phone.  While multi-phone users are forecast to be a minority portion of the market over the next few years, their numbers will be increasing. In the long run, an increasing number of additional multi-phone cellular subscribers are expected to continue to help boost future cellphone handset sales.

Figure 2

More detailed market forecasts for the total cellphone and smartphone segments through 2018 will be provided in the 2015 IC Market Drivers Report.

NOTE: Electronics.ca Publications is currently taking orders for the 2015 IC Market Drivers Report, which will be released later this month (November 2014).  If you need to fully understand the driving forces behind IC market growth, you need to subscribe to the 2015 IC Market Drivers Report.

 

Worldwide Cellphone Subscriptions Forecast to Exceed Worldwide Population in 2015

High Performance Computing Market is Expected to Grow to $33.43 Billion by 2018

High Performance Computing Market report provides detailed insights into the global HPC market split across various regions, types of components and professional services, types of deployments, and types of professional services. We expect an increasing adoption of HPC solutions, as major vendors are bringing cost-effective and technologically advanced solutions and are aggressively investing and rigorously working toward development of the computing solutions. The total HPC market is expected to grow from $24.32 billion in 2013 to $33.43 billion by 2018, at an estimated Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.6 % from 2013 to 2018.

High Performance Computing Market (HPC) is experiencing a rapid adoption in the market with the increase in the number of data centers worldwide and large investment by government across different countries. Along with this, there has been an increasing usage of HPC applications, which has enabled enterprises to solve grand scientific challenges such as modeling and simulation of various events and processes; it also enables predictive and behavioral analysis of various scientific phenomena. Another major factor which is escalating the growth of this market is the constant rise in the number of super computers around the world.

The HPC market is segmented on the basis of components and professional services, deployment models, and price bands. Currently, the on-premise deployment model is majorly being used by the companies to implement the extensive computing solutions. The cloud deployment model has also gained traction due to increasing cloud services. Servers ranging from $ 249,000- $500,000 and above have gained significant traction over the years and large number of commercial organizations are using this price band of servers to improve their business productivity and efficiency. HPC has emerged from Symmetric Multi Processing System (SMP) to new clustered computing systems with processing capability up to petaflops/second.

Details of the new report, table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications’ web site. View the report: High Performance Computing Market – Global Market Forecasts & Analysis 2013 – 2018.

High Performance Computing Market is Expected to Grow to $33.43 Billion by 2018

Mobile Backhaul Planning and Engineering Considerations and Market Potential

The popular vision of the mobile industry (beyond the devices) is one of cell towers, but the backbone of the industry is backhaul! Backhaul is the connection of every cell site to the network. Without backhaul, the cell sites are useless. The word backhaul is somewhat misleading, as it brings up thoughts of double hauling of traffic. This of course is not the case. Backhaul is simply the name applied to the connection to the network. Backhaul has been around much longer than the cellular industry. It is the connection from any point of concentration (cell site, voice switch/concentrator, data switch/router, etc.) to the network. It is the facility that connects to the line side of the router. It is the facility that connects to the network side of a switch.

The cellular industry has grown from almost nothing in the last two decades to the most dominate communications service/technology in the world. However, as the forecasts in this report clearly show, that growth is far from over. Just to put the deluge of mobile devices in perspective here are some statistics:

• 87% of American adults own cell phones, but traffic continues to grow at a record pace, and many individuals now own multiple cellular devices and that is a growing trend.

• Over have of these are Smart Phones.

• It is estimated that in 2013 the number of owned mobile devices (phones, tablets, laptops, etc) exceeded the World’s population.

• US mobile traffic is now 12 times the traffic on the entire Internet in 2000.

• Mobile data traffic grew 70% in 2012.

The traffic growth on mobile devices continues (in addition to the growth in raw numbers of devices and the movement from just phones to much more capable – and more data hungry – smartphones) as the devices have first embraced high data usage and now are embracing video delivery.

This report is a guideline for considerations for planning and engineering backhaul, as well as forecasts for the cellular industry market potential. It will provide a useful tool for anyone (novice to engineer in the field) to understanding the complexities and choices in planning and engineering a vast variety of telecommunications projects. It will also be invaluable as a guide to the growth that has occurred and is forecast to continue for the cellular industry. While the report is primarily aimed at the cellular industry, it is also intended as a guide for all types of projects requiring a connection to the network.

Details of the new report, table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications’ web site.  View the report: Mobile Backhaul Planning and Engineering Considerations and Market Potential.

Mobile Backhaul Planning and Engineering Considerations and Market Potential

Connector Industry Report

2014 Connector Industry Forecast provides an in-depth, and detailed forecast of the worldwide connector industry. In addition to the detailed forecasts for each region of the world (North America, Europe, Japan, China, Asia Pacific, and ROW), an industry overview is included which provides current market trends, industry book-to-bill ratios, and outlook narrative. 

Since 1980 the connector industry has experienced four growth business cycles, meaning consecutive years of increases in year-over-year sales. The average growth business cycle in the connector industry is five years. The longest (years without a decline in sales) is eight years (1993-2000).

The downturn of 2011/2012 has somewhat broken the industry mold. The period of growth lasted only 23 months before sales began declining in 4Q11. The downturn, which was over in October 2012, lasted only 12 months. The decline was only -2.7% which is the smallest measured since 1992.

Since 1980, we have achieved twenty-eight years of sales increases and six years of sales declines. The average growth cycle lasts five years, with two years being the shortest growth cycle, and eight years the longest. The industry’s thirty-three year compound annual growth (CAGR) is +5.7%. Only once in thirty-three years has the industry had two consecutive years of sales declines (2001-2002).

In the three industry declines prior to 2001, the years of growth in between the downturns was four, six, and eight years. From the end of the 2001/2 downturn to the beginning of the 2008/9 downturn was 75 months (6.3 years). From the end of the 2008/9 downturn to the beginning of the 2011/12 downturn was 23 months (1.9 years). The decreasing cycle rate may be the result of the increasing inter-dependencies of the world’s economies and our 24/7 processing of news of all types.

Historically we are at the beginning of a fifth growth business cycle that will last another five years on average. Although nothing is certain, it is likely that the next downturn is three or more years down the road, given no unforeseen regional or worldwide calamities. The economies of the world and their governments have gone (and are going) through a major fiscal correction, which should lead to relatively stable times where the growth rates will, in all likelihood, be more modest than they have been after past industry downturns.

Year-over-year sales growth in the next five years is expected to hit a high in 2019, with growth forecast at +7.5%.

2014 Connector Industry Report

We are forecasting 2014 sales to grow +8.3% to $52,929.7 million. This projected high single digit growth is in line with GDP growth projections by the IMF for the various regions of the world. World sales are up +9.5% through May. Bishop’s forecast +8.3% sales growth for full year 2014 indicates sales demand will soften modestly between now and year end. Details of the new report, table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications’ web site.  View Connector Industry Report.

Connector Industry Report

Global Air and Missile Defense Radar Market

ELECTRONICS.CA PUBLICATIONS announces the availability of a new report entitled “Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR) Market (by Land-Based Systems, Naval Systems and Airborne Systems) – Global Forecasts and Analysis to 2014 – 2020″.  According to this report, the global air and missile defense radar market is estimated to be $7 billion in 2014 and expected to register a CAGR of 6.82% to reach 10.40 billion in 2020. The main purpose of the air and missile defense radar is to detect early-warning devices. They can spot approaching enemy’s’ airborne systems or missiles at great distances. In case of an attack, early detection of the enemy is critical for a successful defense against an attack. The typical AMDR systems can perform the tasks like surveillance, long range early warning, and ground controlled interceptions; integrated in different platforms in combat warfare.

The U.S. has been the biggest market for the air and missile defense radar system; in respect the recent economic scenario has seen a defense budget cuts in the U.S. market as well. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region like South Korea, Japan and Middle Eastern countries like UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel can drive the growth of the market. India and China’s market will be tough to penetrate because of their strict government regulations and indigenous programms. Russia with respect to AMDR market continues to be highly indigenous with all the manufacturing done by Russian companies.

Global market players like Russia, Israel, and U.S. contributes 70% towards the global air and missile defense radar market. Major eastern countries are in constant threat of nuclear and other conventional missile attacks, countries are geared up to increase their air and missile defense; hence, the current market trend is highly opportunistic. The air and missile defense market is highly driven by the latest technology,; Though the current systems are successfully tested by the market players, yet their real-time deployment in war zones is limited.

The overall effectiveness of the mission invariably depends upon AMDR systems and services. As modern warfare becomes more asymmetric in nature it thus increases the need for aerial protection from nuclear and other conventional weapon systems. The range of technologies available with respect to air AMDR systems is increasingly diverse and their rapid evolution is driving the demand for global AMDR systems.

Markets Covered

This radar market research report categorizes the global market on the basis of air and missile defense radar sub-sector, platform, geography, and by country; forecasting revenues, market share, and analyzing trends in each of the sub-sectors.

General Segmentation

Air and Missile Defense Radar Market

On the Basis of Architecture Type:

This market is segmented on the basis of technology across the various architecture types like:

On the basis of Country

The following countries are covered in this report:

1.	United States	10.	Australia
2.	Russia	10.	U.A.E.
3.	United Kingdom	10.	Japan
4.	Germany	12.	South Korea
5.	France	13.	Canada
6.	Indonesia	14.	Brazil
7.	Saudi Arabia	15.	Turkey
8.	India

Stakeholders

• All departments pertaining to AMDR


• Armed services


• Defense system manufacturers


• Defense software providers


• Sub-component manufacturers

Details of the new report,  table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications’ web site.  View the report: Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR) Market (by Land-Based Systems, Naval Systems and Airborne Systems) – Global Forecasts and Analysis to 2014 – 2020.

Research report SKU: MA-AS2242

Related Research: Active Electronically-Scanned Arrays – AESAs Global Markets.

 

 

Global Air and Missile Defense Radar Market

Military Electro Optical Infrared (EO/IR) Systems Market

ELECTRONICS.CA PUBLICATIONS announces the availability of a new report entitled “Military Electro-Optical / Infrared Systems Market Forecast to 2020“.  According to this new study,  the total value of global Military Electro-Optical/Infrared Systems Market is expected to reach $16.35 Billion by 2020, to register a CAGR of 7.71%.

Electro-optic Infrared (EO/IR) systems provide militaries with exceptional battlefield capabilities. In particular, EO/IR systems are integral to the intelligence, surveillance, & reconnaissance (ISR), intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities of the modern military forces. EO/IR capabilities are seen as a critical force multiplier, enabling a flexible deployment of targeted military forces that are based on accurate and timely surveillance and reconnaissance.

This report segments the military electro optical infrared (EO/IR) systems Market on the basis of system, type, sensor technology, and region. The geographical analysis contains an in-depth classification which includes the North America, Europe, APAC, the Middle East, and ROW, thus, encompassing the major countries that cover the respective markets. The report also discusses the industry, market, and technology trends that currently, prevail in the market. The report provides vital information on key trends related to sensor and imaging technologies. It is expected that advancements in the sensor technologies would shape and influence the said market.

The growth is expected to be driven by the increasing usage of military electro-optical/infrared systems in surveillance operations. In Naval platforms, electro-optic systems are finding increasing use in next generation close in weapon system (CIWS). CIWS use electro-optic systems for target acquisition and engagement.

There is a bullish trend towards the imaging technologies adopted by the market leaders, in this market. The infrared systems are expected to witness a rapid growth during the forecast period. North America is expected to witness a slight decline in the market share during the forecast period, due to defense budget cuts, compared to other regions. China, India, Brazil, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are identified as emerging economies which are expected to witness an upsurge in demand of electro-optical systems. Blue Ocean strategies in the defense sector will help the market grow at a rapid pace. The APAC countries will focus on growth, aim to create an uncontested market space, and direct their region’s economies on a higher trajectory for the long run. Along with the organic and inorganic growth strategies being adopted, military Keynesianism is also expected to fuel the market in the emerging economies. The ongoing dynamic growth of economies, especially in Southeast Asia, is expected to present defense companies with significant opportunities in this market.

Key players profiled in this market are Raytheon Company, Lockheed Martin, L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. BAE Systems Plc. Thales group, DRS Technologies, Northrop Grumman, Elbit Systems Ltd., Harris Corporation, RheinmetallDefence AG, Textron, Rockwell Collins, II-VI, Inc., Ultra Electronics Holdings, Inc., and Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd. A competitive landscape with respect to the aforementioned players and their market share has also been provided in the report. In a nutshell, this market has enormous potential for new technological advancements and is expected to grow at a steady growth rate during the forecast period.

Details of the new report, table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications’ web site. View the report:  “Military Electro-Optical / Infrared Systems Market Forecast to 2020”

 

Military Electro Optical Infrared (EO/IR) Systems Market

HDD & SSD Industry Market Analysis And Processing Trends

ELECTRONICS.CA PUBLICATIONS announces the availability of a new report entitled “The Hard Disk Drive (HDD) and Solid State Drive (SSD) Industry: Market Analysis And Processing Trends“.

Hard-disk drives have been the default storage component in desktop and laptop PCs for decades. As a result, the term “hard drive” is now the common descriptor for all storage hardware. Although modern hard-disk drives are far more advanced and higher-performing than their counterparts from yesteryear, on many levels their basic underlying technology remains unchanged. All hard-disk drives consist of quickly rotating magnetic platters paired with read/write heads that travel over the platters’ surfaces to retrieve or record data.

On many levels, solid-state drives are similar to hard drives. They usually connect to a system by way of the SATA interface (though PCI Express-based drives are also available for ultrahigh-performance applications), and they store files just as any other drive does. SSDs, however, eschew the magnetic platters and read/write heads of hard-disk drives in favor of nonvolatile NAND flash memory, so no mechanical parts or magnetic bits are involved.

Key criteria that differentiate HDDs and SSDs are:

Form factor

Without any moving parts, SSD products are the thinnest of the available storage options. They’re especially good for thin and light PCs and complex, industrial designs. For standard notebooks, SSDs are available in 5mm and 7mm heights. By comparison, HDDs are available in standard 7mm and 9.5mm designs. SSHDs debuted at 9mm, will ship at 7mm soon, and 5mm designs have been announced for shipment in 2013.

Capacity

HDDs are the workhorses when it comes to sheer capacity and how much data can be stored. SSHD technology also offers maximum capacity points at affordable price points while SSDs are only affordable at lower capacities. High-capacity SSDs are extremely expensive.

Speed

SSDs provide peak performance for booting and high read/write performance to supporting computing that requires enhanced multitasking capabilities. On the other hand, an SSHD can provide near SSD performance for booting, launching, and loading data. HDDs usually provide ample performance for the majority of PC platforms shipping today.

Price

At a system level, low-capacity SSDs can be affordable in the 32GB to 64GB range. But high-capacity SSDs are very expensive, especially when measured by cost per gigabyte. HDDs provide the lowest cost per gigabyte. SSHDs provide a cost per gigabyte that’s just slightly higher than HDDs.

Battery life

In general, storage will not impact battery life in a laptop computer by more than about 10%. Processor power and LCD really run down the battery. However, SSD is the most power-efficient, and SSHD is a close second because it can spin down more frequently than an HDD.

Reliability

Failure rates on SSD, HDD, and SSHD technologies have very similar ratings. SSHD has benefits because it uses both the SSD and HDD portions more efficiently than if they were separate.

Durability

SSDs are viewed as more durable simply because of their solid state design. Without moving parts, they can withstand higher extremes of shock, drop, and temperature.

Details of the new report, table of contents and ordering information can be found on Electronics.ca Publications’ web site.  View the report: The Hard Disk Drive (HDD) and Solid State Drive (SSD) Industry: Market Analysis And Processing Trends.

SSD Industry Market Analysis  

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 The Disk Drive Market Infrastructure

Chapter 2 The Hard Disk Drive Industry

2.1 Hard Disk Drive Trends 2-1

2.2 Hard Disk Form Factors 2-10

2.3 Hard Disk Drive Market Analysis 2-14

2.3.1 Desktop PCs 2-23

2.3.2 Portable PCs 2-23

2.3.3 Enterprise 2-26

2.3.4 Consumer Electronics 2-26

2.4 Competitive Structure 2-34

2.4.1 HDD Market Share 2-34

Chapter 3 The Solid State Drive Industry

3.1 Solid-State Drives (SSD) Trends 3-1

3.2 Solid-State Drives Market Analysis 3-2

3.2.1 Client SSD Trends and Forecast 3-8

3.2.2 Enterprise SSD Trends and Forecast 3-15

3.2.3 Hybrid Hard Drives (HHD) Forecast 3-20

3.3 3D NAND Forecast 3-23

3.3.1 Comparison of 3D-NAND Structures 3-25

3.4 SSD Capacity Forecast 3-29

Chapter 4 Recording Heads

4.1 Thin Film Read/Write Heads 4-1

4.1.1 Thin Film (TF) Heads 4-2

4.1.2 Magnetoresistive (MR/AMR) Heads 4-2

4.1.3 Giant Magnetoresistive (GMR) Heads 4-4

4.1.4 Colossal Magnetoresistive (CMR) Heads 4-7

4.1.5 Current-Perpendicular-To-Place (CPP) Heads 4-8

4.1.6 Ballistic Magnetoresistance (BMR) Heads 4-8

4.2 Trends 4-10

4.3 Recording Head Market Forecast 4-18

Chapter 5 Processing Trends And Markets

5.1 Head Processing 5-1

5.1.1 Head Fabrication – CMP, Deposition, Lithography 5-6

5.1.1.1 CMP Challenges 5-11

–  Ceria Slurry For Glass Disk Market 5-17

– Oxide Slurry For Metal Disk Market 5-22

– Oxide Slurry For Thin Film Head Market 5-25

5.1.1.2 Lithography Challenges 5-28

5.2 Patterned Magnetic Media 5-31

5.2.1 Conventional Media 5-32

5.2.2 Patterned Media 5-34

5.3 Market Analysis Of Discrete Track Media 5-44

5.3.1 The Perpendicular Recording Movement 5-44

5.3.2 Cost of Ownership (CoO) Analysis 5-59

5.4 NAND Processing 5-65

5.4.1 2D NAND Processing 5-67

5.4.2 3D NAND Processing 5-73

5.4.2.1 Etch Challenges and Market Forecast 5-80

5.4.2.2 Deposition Challenges and Market Forecast 5-81

5.5 3D ReRAM Challenges 5-82

Chapter 3 The Media Market

3.1 Industry Trends 3-1

3.2 Media Profiles 3-5

3.3 Media Market Supplier Shares 3-7

Chapter 4 The Substrate Market

4.1 Platter Substrate Materials 4-1

4.1.1 Aluminum Disks 4-4

4.1.2 Glass Disks 4-6

4.2 Substrate Market 4-11

4.3 Substrate Suppliers 4-16

4.4 Glass Substrate Supplier Shares 4-21

 

HDD & SSD Industry Market Analysis And Processing Trends